Bitfinex report: If Bitcoin market share reaches a local peak, altcoins may perform better than the overall market in the coming months
Cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex stated that altcoins showed resilience during last week's market sell-off, with a decrease in Bitcoin dominance (the proportion of Bitcoin market value to the total cryptocurrency market value) as selling pressure intensified, unlike previous market downturns. Bitfinex believes that if the market capitalization of Bitcoin has indeed reached a local high, altcoins may perform better in the coming months.
In its "Bitfinex Alpha" report released on Monday, Bitfinex pointed out that last week's market downturn pushed Bitcoin prices below the key low of $56711 seen on May 1st, a level that had previously triggered a rapid rebound. The recent sell-off has led to a decrease in leveraged positions, indicating that the market may be approaching local lows.
Bitfinex also pointed out that the correlation between Bitcoin prices and traditional financial markets still exists, and the significant outflow of funds from spot ETFs in the past week indicates that traditional financial investors are reducing their exposure to cryptocurrencies. It is worth noting that since August 27th, the net outflow of Bitcoin ETFs has reached $706.1 million, and the cumulative increase in spot trades (CVD) has shown a downward trend, indicating aggressive selling in the spot market.
At the same time, the altcoin market has shown resilience, with Bitcoin's market capitalization decreasing by 1.3% during last week's intensified sell-off, while all other cryptocurrency assets (excluding the top ten cryptocurrencies by market capitalization) increased by 4.4%. Bitfinex continues to write:
We cannot help but say that this change implies a potential pattern shift, where investors are seeking the value of altcoins, which is different from the typical pattern of investors flocking to Bitcoin during downturns
Bitfinex added that the number of open contracts for altcoins has also dropped by 55% from historical highs, indicating a cold speculative interest and potential exhaustion of sellers. In addition, as a representative of the altcoin market, the ETH/BTC ratio is still below its 365 day simple moving average (SMA), reflecting the overall poor performance of Ethereum (ETH) since its merger.
Bitfinex believes that if the market capitalization of Bitcoin has indeed reached a local high, "we may see a period of altcoins outperforming the market in the coming months, which could lay the foundation for a bullish fourth quarter if macroeconomic pressures ease.
data source
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